According to a whistleblower on Reddit, Bitcoin could significantly disrupt the dollar and, by extension, the Federal Reserve as soon as 2021. He describes himself as someone with a BS in Computer Science and a PhD in Econometrics, who worked at the San Francisco Fed when he was given an assignment on Bitcoin.
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The whistleblower shares:
The Dirty: We were directed to upgrade our modeling of bitcoin from developing currency to a major currency. In addition to all of the common modeling and forecasting that task entails, we were instructed to do full simulations of money flows, interest rates, multi currency derivative baskets, risk metrics, and their effects on global macro monetary policy and trade agreements. What we found was shocking.Even with a mediocre adoption rate and variable growth rate, bitcoin severely disrupts how we model, forecast, and ultimately understand currency interactions to make monetary policy decisions. This is a huge technological, monetary, and policy disruption which leaves the Fed, the US govt, and other entities with much less control. Our best case scenarios are modeled upon current bitcoin adoption rates which have simulated a tipping point for the year 2026 (worst case 2021); this time frame projects the Fed (via the dollar) to lose its dominant global monetary policy maker status – instead everything will superseded by bitcoin.
I presented this updated report along with all of our modeling work and simulation outputs which were statistically and independently verified to the Board of Governors.The Board was highly alarmed and interrogated me and my fellow researchers in a 3 day session trying to understand every point of our research. It must be remembered that unlike politicians, the Board of Governors is a very well educated and empirical group with an ability to conceptually grasp complicated research.
Former Presidential candidate Ron Paul has spoken of the possibility of Bitcoin replacing the dollar. He said that if many people start to use bitcoins, “It’ll go down in history as the destroyer of the dollar.” Paul warns that “Governments absolutely demand a monopoly on money and credit. They’re not going to give it up easily. They will come down hard.”
Could Bitcoin have a severe impact on the dollar and how monetary policy is conducted?
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