Venzen Khaosan 26/07/2014
The analysis below (Bitstamp charts throughout) outlines target levels to the downside and considers a wave pattern analysis as pointer to where the market might be heading.
Bitcoin Price Debrief
Last week’s analysis identified a juncture that would determine the immediate trend and whereby we could get confirmation of what stage the Bitcoin price was in, according to its present wave structure. Last week’s chart is posted below and shows the critical juncture circled in magenta.
The crossroads formed by the purple declining channel (projected from the Nov 2013 all-time-high) and the long-term ascending trendline (dotted red diagonal) presented the bulls with an opportunity to stage an upside breakout.
It was proposed that if the bulls failed to grab horn, price would fall back to support at $610 – or the stronger support level at $590. Here is an updated chart of the price action since:
On Thursday (24th July) price action surprised many traders by simultaneously dropping through its 200 period moving average (red), as well as medium term support (solid blue) at $610. Within a couple of hours, the $600 psychological level also gave way and the sell-off halted just short of $590.
Subsequently, a retest of $600 occurred, failed, and during the early hours of Saturday price had dropped back to $590 – briefly dipping to $589 on both the Bitstamp and Bitfinex charts.
So what are the prospects going forward?
Scenario A: Continuing Decline
Should price breach the $590 support level, we could expect continuing decline to existing support/resistance levels – some of them reinforced by Fibonacci extensions of the first declining wave – as projected on the following chart:
Considering that Bitcoin price had (over a week ago) breached the long-term supporting trendline (dotted red diagonal), the current rate of decline is mild. Price is effectively in “free fall” territory, and the bears could aggressively assert decline, at any time and without much technical opposition.
Amongst the likely targets for the initial decline, the writer would, as always, favor those that coincide with Fibonacci levels 1.618 and 2.618. If $590 were to give way.
Scenario B: Pull-back Before the Rally
A strong argument in favor of advance can be made from an Elliott Wave analysis of the chart. There are several examples of clean five-wave advances being printed subsequent to the April low near $340. Additionally, there is evidence that an advancing diagonal may be forming, due to the large degree of the intervening three-wave structures shown by the annotations a-b-c.
The prospect of a diagonal wave unfolding to the upside, although exciting, is mere speculation at this stage. There is just no confirming evidence for it. In fact, any prospect of advance at the present juncture is fraught with risk and is marred by the real price action – which is clearly pointing down. It seems inevitable that price should either
- a) decline to one of the targets mentioned in Scenario A, or
- b) resist decline below $590 and market participants slowly come round (via consolidation) to the realization that longer term trend is pointing upward.
With regards to the above two turn of events (or even in the event of large institutional entry and a jolt to the upside – from $590!), the only way we can be sure of advance would be throughobjective confirmation on the chart. That confirmation would be for price to get back on top of $610, and then to advance beyond $680 in an impulsive manner. There are large sell orders waiting at $680 (in the Bitfinex orderbook and equivalent level at BTC-China) and $680 is sure to be a future reaction level.
The writer won’t venture to call a bottom at this stage. Unfortunately, the only evidence of advance will be green candles reaching above the levels mentioned – “reaching above” is emphasized so as to mitigate the possibility of Bitcoin price unfolding a larger degree sideways triangle – a potential Scenario C, but best left for the market to confirm by attempting $660 and being rejected.