Is Bitcoin a bubble?
Bitcoin Trading Alert
BY MIKE MCARA
July 18, 2014 • Reprints
We still support long, speculative positions, stop-loss at $550.
Bitcoin is still perceived by financial professionals as a possible bubble, a poll by Bloomberg has shown:
Bitcoins, which lost 45% of their value after skyrocketing to more than $1,100 last year, are poised to tumble further, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll of financial professionals.
55% of those surveyed said the virtual currency trades at unsustainable, bubble-like prices, according to the quarterly poll of 562 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Another 14% said it’s on the verge of a bubble. Only 6 percent of respondents said a bubble isn’t forming. The remaining 25 percent were unsure.
This definitely shows the future of Bitcoin is not perceived as clear. And it’s not. What Bitcoin will become is still very uncertain. It might turn out to be a bubble. It doesn’t have to, though. There are numerous possibilities to use the network, so the currency is not an empty promise. It doesn’t have to go down in the future. If Bitcoin becomes accepted as a payment protocol by the general audience, we might see its value rise sharply. It’s not certain, but this is part of the investment process.
For now, one of the most important parts in the development of Bitcoin is making it safe for the customer to use. Once Bitcoin startups introduce new ideas for Bitcoin security we might as well see the perception of Bitcoin reversed.
There is also one piece of information that doesn’t support the Bitcoin bubble theory. Namely, bubbles are usually formed on widespread enthusiasm about an idea. For instance, the dot-com bubble thrived on the enthusiasm about tech companies. We don’t see this kind of frenzy in the Bitcoin market right now.
Let’s turn to the charts.
If you recall what we wrote yesterday:
As a matter of fact, Bitcoin has gone up today (this is written after 11:45 a.m. EDT). “Is this bullish enough?” the question might be knocking around hour heads. We’ve asked ourselves the exact same question. Here’s what we think.
This move of appreciation might be first in five days. The slightly more pessimistic take on the market, in which the current trend is established by the declining line ending just below $650 on the above chart, would suggest that we are still below the trend, with a possible attempt at breaking above it.
In other words, the situation might become even more bullish in a matter of days but there also are indications that the move we’ve seen today is not strong enough just yet. The volume levels also don’t support a strong move at this moment.
Caring about your investments as we do, we think that this is not the time to increase one’s positions. On the other hand, the outlook is still bullish enough, in our opinion, to keep the longs.
Bitcoin went up yesterday on BitStamp but has gone down today (this is written before 11:15 a.m. EDT). This confirms the above point of view. The thing you might be wondering about is whether there have been any changes in the market. We certainly do wonder that from one day to another. Let’s address this point.
The move down we’ve seen today hasn’t been significant and the volume remains very low. These are not typical characteristics of a significant move down. Altogether, Bitcoin is still between two hypothetical trend lines (declining black lines on the above chart). The situation remains a bit unclear but the fact that we haven’t seen a significant move down and the recent declines took place on low volume makes us more optimistic than not about the short-term prospects.